Various people involved in the door drops industry have been predicting a single digit percentage drop in volume for doordrops which most of the contributors to doordrops.co.uk have all strongly disareed with. On the 1st of January 2009 we predicted a fall of circa 20% in our 2009 Door Drops Prospects article but we are now revising that even further downwards.

We were niticipating a fall of around 11-12% for January 2009 versus January 2008 given that much of the volume for Q1 was already committed before advertisers started pulling back heavily -  especially with Royal Mail door drops where many users had committed many months in advance. However media monitoring shows the reduction in door drops spend is in excess of 16% year on year for January 2009 which is far worse than expected for the first month of 2009. 

If this is the case then we would predict that this reduction to accelerate over the course of 2009.  We would now anticipate a drop of between 25% and 30% for doordrops in 2009 as a whole.  Added to the general malaise in offline advertising where clients are scrapping this budget before the online budget, there is also the fact that whilst Press, TV, Radio and Outdoor costs have all plummeted, doordrop costs have risen again this year for Royal Mail whist other door drop channel costs remain fairly static.

Against this backdrop door drops are now viewed as more expensive than ever. We do not expect offline spend and doordrops especially to start rising again until Q3 2010 and even then they will still below the levels in 2008. The weak economy and the online squeeze continue to apply downward pressure on doordrops. 

More to follow......

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